West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell below $96 per barrel on Friday, settling at $95.78 — a 3.9% single-day decline and the lowest close since early March. Brent crude slid 4.3% to $99.20, briefly breaking below the psychologically important $100 mark for the first time in seven weeks. The selloff followed a Department of Energy announcement detailing a phased strategic petroleum reserve refill plan that markets interpreted as a credible bridge through the Iran conflict's endgame.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright told a briefing that the SPR will resume purchases at an initial pace of 500,000 barrels per day beginning in June, ramping to 1 million barrels per day by September, contingent on a signed ceasefire and safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The reserve has drawn down to 312 million barrels from 348 million at the conflict's start and requires sustained purchases through 2027 to restore baseline capacity.
IEA Releases Coordinated Action Path
In a coordinated release, the International Energy Agency published a 12-month supply-restoration plan endorsed by 28 member countries. The plan envisions a staggered end to strategic-reserve drawdowns, normalized Gulf shipping by Q3, and reintegration of Iranian barrels from domestic storage currently estimated at 42 million barrels. The IEA projects global supply-demand balance returning to pre-conflict levels by Q1 2027.
OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on May 5, with delegates signaling that the group will maintain current production quotas through July before considering modest increases in Q3. Saudi Arabia has indicated willingness to accelerate its own expansion if prices move below $80 per barrel, though Russia and several smaller OPEC+ members favor production discipline to support revenue.
Energy Equities Diverge From Crude
Despite the oil selloff, integrated energy majors actually gained ground on Friday as the market priced in an orderly normalization rather than a disorderly price collapse. ExxonMobil added 1.2% to $128, Chevron rose 0.8% to $168, and ConocoPhillips closed higher at $134. Refiners outperformed, with Valero up 2.8% and Marathon Petroleum adding 3.1% on stronger crack spreads.
U.S. gasoline futures fell 2.6% to $2.84 per gallon wholesale, suggesting retail pump prices — still averaging $4.22 per gallon nationally — could ease by 20-30 cents per gallon over the next four weeks. Natural gas, largely disconnected from the Iran crisis, held near $4.12 per MMBtu on seasonal demand patterns heading into summer cooling season.