The S&P 500 surged 1.46% to a record 7,365.42 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.02% to 25,838.11 on Wednesday after Axios reported that US and Iranian negotiators were closing in on a 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the conflict that has roiled energy markets since March 1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 612 points to close at 49,910, its highest level since late January.
WTI crude plunged 7.0% to settle at $95.08 per barrel — its largest single-day decline since the conflict began — while Brent crude fell 7.8% to $101.27. The deal framework reportedly includes Iran shipping its enriched uranium stockpile to the United States and a 30-day timeline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, where an estimated 166 tankers carrying 170 million barrels of crude remain stranded.
Deal Framework Details
According to Axios, the 14-point memorandum covers several core demands from both sides: Iran would ship 95% of its enriched uranium above 3.67% purity to the United States within 60 days, submit to enhanced IAEA inspections, and release detained dual-nationals. In return, Washington would lift secondary sanctions on Iranian oil exports, unfreeze $12 billion in Iranian central-bank assets held in South Korean and Japanese banks, and provide a 180-day wind-down period for existing sanctions.
The most market-moving element is the proposed 30-day timeline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz under joint US-Omani naval supervision. Since March 1, the strait closure has removed approximately 17.4 million barrels per day of crude transit capacity from global markets, triggering the surge in oil prices from $72 to above $100 per barrel.
Market Impact Across Asset Classes
The risk-on rally was broad-based. Industrials led S&P 500 sector gains at +2.7%, followed by technology at +2.3% and consumer discretionary at +1.9%. Energy was the sole decliner, falling 4.2% as Exxon Mobil shed 3.8%, Chevron dropped 4.1%, and ConocoPhillips lost 5.2%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 2.4 points to 14.8, its lowest close since February 12.
Gold posted a seemingly contradictory gain, climbing 3.07% to $4,695 per ounce as investors hedged against the possibility the deal could collapse. Bitcoin rose 1.0% to $82,089 as the broader crypto market tracked equity risk appetite. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked down 4 basis points to 4.38% as traders priced in lower inflation expectations from cheaper oil.