President Trump's temporary 10% global tariff, imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, is set to expire July 24 — and the administration has threatened to push the rate to the statutory maximum of 15% as businesses brace for another shift in trade policy.
The tariff has been in place since February 24, following the Supreme Court's ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that the administration's earlier IEEPA-based tariffs were illegal — a decision requiring an estimated $166 billion in refunds to more than 330,000 businesses. Section 122 gave Trump a narrower, time-limited replacement authority, one capped at 150 days and 15%.
What happened
Trump signaled his intent to raise the rate within 24 hours of the initial 10% tariff taking effect, posting on Truth Social that he planned to move to 15%, the statutory ceiling under Section 122. He has not yet issued the formal order to do so, and some analysts believe the administration has held off partly because of separate negotiated rates already locked in with major partners, including a 10% baseline for the United Kingdom and 15% for the European Union.
The tariff itself remains under legal fire. On May 7, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled in Oregon v. United States that the underlying proclamation exceeded presidential authority, though its relief applied only to the plaintiffs in that case, leaving the 10% surcharge in place for other importers while the government appeals to the Federal Circuit. Customs and Border Protection has continued collecting the tariff throughout.
Why it matters
The Section 122 tariff isn't operating in isolation. The administration has layered on new restrictions targeting 60 trading partners — including the EU, China, Japan and the UK — over insufficient forced-labor prohibitions, opened a Section 301 proceeding against Brazil with public comments due July 1, and set a flat 50% tariff on steel, aluminum and copper products (25% on derivatives) that took effect in April. Each addition compounds a tariff architecture businesses are still working to price into supply chains.
Market impact
The average effective U.S. tariff rate peaked near 27% in early 2025, the highest in more than a century, before falling to an estimated 11.8% by April as courts intervened and the administration struck negotiated deals, including with Indonesia in February and on UK whiskey access in April. Even at reduced levels, analysts describe the cumulative tariff regime as the largest U.S. tax increase as a share of GDP since 1993, averaging roughly $1,500 per household this year. A jump to 15% on July 24 would push that burden higher just as companies report second-quarter earnings.