Tesla (TSLA) shares fell 4.8% to $268.40 in Sunday pre-market trading after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration confirmed it has opened a formal probe into a Saturday Robotaxi beta crash in Phoenix that left one pedestrian with non-life-threatening injuries. The incident is the third reported Robotaxi-related crash since the limited commercial launch on March 15.
According to a preliminary statement from Phoenix police, a Tesla Robotaxi Model Y operating in Full Self-Driving Beta v14.2 failed to yield at a four-way stop on East Camelback Road at 7:42 p.m. local time Saturday and struck a pedestrian crossing legally. The pedestrian, an adult male, was transported to Banner University Medical Center and is in stable condition. Tesla deactivated the affected vehicle remotely within 90 seconds of the incident.
NHTSA Opens Engineering Analysis
NHTSA's Office of Defects Investigation said it would conduct an Engineering Analysis (EA) covering all 412 Tesla vehicles currently operating under Robotaxi commercial permits in Phoenix and Austin. The analysis is the second-most serious tier of NHTSA scrutiny and can lead to a mandatory recall. Tesla disclosed in its 10-Q filing that 28% of Robotaxi route miles are now driven without a safety driver.
CEO Elon Musk addressed the crash in a Sunday afternoon post on X, calling the incident "deeply regrettable" and pledging "full cooperation with regulators." Musk added that the company's AI software team had "already isolated the cause" and would push an over-the-air update to all FSD Beta v14.2 vehicles by Monday morning.
Earnings Wednesday Now in Focus
The probe lands less than 48 hours before Tesla's scheduled first quarter earnings release on Wednesday, April 28. Consensus analyst estimates call for revenue of $24.8 billion, EPS of $0.62, and Q1 vehicle deliveries already disclosed at 387,000 — a 6.2% year-on-year decline. The earnings call will now likely pivot heavily toward Robotaxi unit economics, regulatory liability and the timeline for nationwide expansion.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives lowered his 12-month price target to $345 from $360 but maintained an Outperform rating, calling the news "a speed bump rather than a wall" on the path to autonomy. RBC's Tom Narayan was more cautious, downgrading