Tesla (TSLA) closed Friday at $376.30, up 0.7% on the session and 3.4% over the week, after CEO Elon Musk committed during Wednesday's Q1 earnings call to building "at least 100,000" Optimus humanoid robots in 2026 and to ramping production exponentially through 2027. The guidance helped offset disappointment over a 6% year-on-year decline in vehicle deliveries to 393,000 units.
Q1 revenue of $19.3 billion missed consensus by $0.6 billion, while adjusted EPS of $0.42 came in in line with the Bloomberg estimate. Operating margin compressed to 7.4%, the lowest level since Q4 2020, reflecting price cuts in the Model 3 and Model Y in China and Europe and continued startup costs at the Mexico Gigafactory.
Optimus as the Bull Thesis
Musk reiterated his long-running claim that Optimus could become "Tesla's biggest product ever" and disclosed that the company has secured commitments for approximately 32,000 units from external customers, including Foxconn, BMW, and Toyota. Pricing was confirmed at $28,000 per unit at full scale, consistent with prior guidance. ARK Invest analyst Tasha Keeney maintained a 2030 Optimus revenue forecast of $260 billion in a Friday note, more than three times the firm's automotive revenue projection.
Skeptics, including Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi, characterized the 100,000-unit target as "aspirational at best" given that Tesla disclosed building only 8,400 Optimus units cumulatively through Q1. The analyst maintained a Sell rating with a $250 price target, citing valuation that already prices in $40 billion of 2030 robot revenue.
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Chinese deliveries fell 14% year-on-year to 132,000 units in Q1 as BYD, Xiaomi and Geely's premium brands compressed share. Tesla's China average selling price slid to RMB 218,000, down from RMB 248,000 a year earlier. European deliveries fell 19%, and the Cybertruck has averaged just 1,200 units per week, less than half the early-2025 ramp pace.
Energy storage was a bright spot. Tesla reported deployed Megapack capacity of 18.4 GWh in Q1, up 138% year-on-year, with 78% gross margin on the segment. The unit's revenue contribution grew to $4.1 billion, surpassing services for the first time.