Brent crude jumped to a session high of $96.40 in early Thursday Asian trade — a $2.00 intraday gain — after the U.S.-flagged Suezmax tanker M/T Sentinel Trader reported a close-quarters drone-missile near-miss in the eastern Strait of Hormuz approximately 8 nautical miles south of the traffic separation scheme. The vessel, transiting from Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia toward the Red Sea, sustained no damage but the incident is the most kinetic maritime event in the 61-day Iran-Israel war since the early-April U.S.-Iran naval skirmish off the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb.
WTI followed Brent higher, trading at $91.40, also a $2.00 move. The futures-curve term structure steepened sharply: the Brent prompt-vs-six-month time spread widened to $4.20 from $3.10 yesterday, reflecting renewed concentration of risk in front-end barrels. Refinery margin proxies — the 3:2:1 crack spread — gained $1.60. The Brent/WTI arb traded back to $5.00, the widest in three weeks.
War Operational Status
The 61-day-old war remains in a high-intensity phase along multiple axes. Israeli air operations over western Iran continued for a fourth consecutive night, with the IDF reporting strikes on Imam Khomeini Air Base and the Bushehr industrial complex. Iran fired three Shahab-3 ballistic missiles at northern Israel; one was intercepted by Arrow-3 and two fell short into the Mediterranean. The U.S. Navy CENTCOM reports the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group remains on station in the Gulf of Oman, with the USS Eisenhower group transiting through the Suez Canal en route to relieve.
Saudi Aramco reaffirmed Wednesday morning that it has "diversified loading terminals and product flow paths" and that the Yanbu Red Sea export route remains the primary alternative if a Hormuz disruption escalated. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases by the U.S. Department of Energy stand at 1.2 million barrels per day, sustained for 38 consecutive days. The Biden-era Iran sanctions architecture remains in force; no Iranian crude is officially in legal seaborne trade.
Equity and FX Reaction
Energy equity reaction in the Asian session: ExxonMobil (XOM) ADR proxies traded up 1.6%, Chevron (CVX