The S&P 500 closed Friday at a record 7,165.08, up 0.8% on the session and 4.2% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.63% to 24,836.6 as Nvidia (NVDA) rallied 4.3% to $208.27 — within $4 of its all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged with a 0.16% slip to 49,230.71, weighted down by losses in defensive staples and a softer print from UnitedHealth Group.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) eased 3.1% to 18.71, its lowest reading since early March, signalling broad-based hedging unwinds. Equity-market breadth remained constructive: 73% of S&P 500 constituents traded above their 50-day moving average, the highest reading since the post-election rally in November.
Earnings Driving the Bid
With 38% of S&P 500 companies having reported Q1 results, blended earnings growth is tracking at 11.4% year-on-year, comfortably above the 8.7% pre-season consensus. Revenue surprises are running 2.1% above estimates — the best showing since Q4 2021, according to FactSet. Technology and communication services lead with earnings beat-rates above 84%, while energy is the lone laggard with downside misses tied to weaker realized natural gas prices.
Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN) all report between Tuesday and Thursday this coming week. Combined revenue is expected near $623 billion, with capital expenditure on AI infrastructure projected at $102 billion, an all-time high.
Fed Pricing Underpins Risk Appetite
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slipped to 4.31% on Friday, down from 4.42% earlier in the week as softer-than-expected April flash PMI prints reignited rate-cut wagers. Fed funds futures now imply 67% probability of a 25 basis point cut on May 6, with two further cuts priced in by year-end. Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin bumped his year-end S&P 500 target to 7,400 from 7,250 in a Sunday note, citing improved earnings visibility.