Saudi Aramco reported first-quarter net income of $34.2 billion on Friday, an 11% sequential increase that exceeded analyst forecasts by approximately 8%. The state-controlled energy giant benefited from the unwinding of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts and a sharp rise in realized selling prices following the Iran-conflict supply disruption that peaked in March.
Realized crude prices averaged $79.40 per barrel during the quarter, up from $72.10 in Q4 2025, even after the post-ceasefire pullback in spot Brent. Aramco lifted production to 9.6 million barrels per day in March, the highest level since 2022, and signaled it would defend the higher output level through Q2 to recapture market share.
Dividend Maintained at $31 Billion
Aramco confirmed its $31 billion quarterly dividend, including the performance-linked component, providing critical fiscal support to the Saudi state which relies on the payout for over 50% of government revenue. The company gearing ratio remains conservative at 6.4%, well below most international oil major peers, allowing room for additional capital deployment toward downstream and gas projects.
Capital expenditure for the quarter reached $13.2 billion, with the bulk allocated to Jafurah unconventional gas development and the Master Gas System expansion. Chief Executive Amin Nasser told analysts the company is on track to spend $54-58 billion in capex for the full year, slightly above the prior $48-52 billion guidance, reflecting accelerated work on gas-to-power projects supporting domestic AI data-center demand.
Production Strategy Shifts Bearish for Crude
Aramco decision to maintain elevated production amid the post-war supply normalization is bearish for global crude balances heading into the second half of 2026. Goldman Sachs estimates the unwind of OPEC+ cuts will add approximately 2.4 million barrels per day to global supply by year-end, leading the bank to forecast Brent averaging $78 per barrel in Q4, down from prior forecasts near $90.
Aramco shares closed up 0.8% on the Tadawul exchange to 27.45 riyals, valuing the company at approximately $1.8 trillion. The stock has gained 4.2% year-to-date, lagging the broader Tadawul All Share Index which is up 8.7%. American depositary receipts traded over the counter remain limited to qualified institutional investors.