Russia resumed strikes on the Ukrainian capital overnight as the Trump-brokered three-day ceasefire expired at midnight Monday, May 11. Dozens of Shahed drones targeted residential buildings in Kyiv, killing at least one person in the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region and wounding several in the capital, Ukrainian authorities reported. The Russian military said it shot down 27 Ukrainian drones after the ceasefire ended.
Three Days of Fragile Quiet
The ceasefire, announced by President Trump on May 8 ahead of Russia's Victory Day commemorations, was supposed to halt all kinetic activity from May 9 through May 11 and include a prisoner exchange of 1,000 from each side. While attacks decreased significantly during the truce, both sides accused the other of violations. Ukraine reported at least a dozen incidents of Russian shelling in Donetsk and Kherson regions during the ceasefire window.
Putin's Mixed Signals
Speaking at Victory Day events, President Putin said "I think the matter is coming to an end" regarding the four-year conflict, while also expressing openness to European-mediated talks. However, the Kremlin simultaneously ruled out extending the ceasefire. Putin said he would meet Zelensky in a third country only once all conditions for a deal were settled, signaling any peace agreement remains distant despite the diplomatic rhetoric.
Market Impact
European defense stocks rallied on the resumed fighting. Rheinmetall gained 3.8%, BAE Systems rose 4.2%, and Leonardo climbed 3.1% in Tuesday trading. Wheat futures jumped 2.1% on renewed Black Sea shipping concerns. The euro was little changed as the conflict's resumption was widely expected by markets. Ukrainian sovereign bonds fell 1.5 cents on the dollar.
Diplomatic Outlook
Negotiations on the Russia-Ukraine war have been largely sidelined by the Iran conflict, though Trump's ceasefire attempt raised brief hopes that US-led talks could resume. The UK and France have proposed installing "military hubs" in Ukraine as part of a peace framework, while the EU approved a €90 billion loan to Kyiv after the fall of Hungary's Orbán government removed the final obstacle.