Russian President Vladimir Putin used Russia's Victory Day commemorations to signal that the four-year war with Ukraine may be approaching a resolution, telling crowds that "I think the matter is coming to an end." The statement came as a Trump-brokered three-day ceasefire — which ran May 9-11 and included a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange — demonstrated that limited agreements are possible even amid ongoing hostilities.
The Ceasefire Experiment
The three-day truce represented the most significant pause in fighting since 2022. While imperfect — both sides reported violations, with at least two civilians killed — it showed that diplomatic channels remain functional. The prisoner exchange proceeded as planned, with 1,000 soldiers from each side returned. Ukraine's Zelensky was briefed on the ceasefire framework and, according to US officials, "reluctantly agreed" to participate.
Putin's Conditions
Despite the optimistic rhetoric, Putin attached significant conditions. He said he would meet Zelensky in a third country only once all terms of a potential peace agreement were settled — meaning negotiations, not a summit, would need to happen first. "This should be the final point, not the negotiations themselves," Putin stated, effectively demanding pre-negotiated terms before any leader-level meeting.
European Peace Track
Putin's openness to European-mediated talks is a notable shift. The UK and France have proposed installing military monitoring hubs in Ukraine as part of a peace framework, and the EU approved a €90 billion loan to Kyiv for defense and budgetary needs through 2027. The fall of Hungary's Orbán government removed the final EU veto on the package, strengthening the European negotiating position.
Iran Factor
The Russia-Ukraine war has been overshadowed by the US-Iran conflict since February, with diplomatic resources redirected to the Middle East. This has paradoxically created space for a potential Ukraine settlement, as both Washington and Moscow focus on the Hormuz crisis. Russia's growing closeness with Iran complicates dynamics, with China and India maintaining relationships with both sides.