Wells Fargo lifted its Nvidia price target to $315 from $265 ahead of the company's May 20 earnings report, a 19% increase that reflects Q1 revenue guidance of approximately $78 billion — a figure that would represent 73% to 80% growth year-over-year.
With Nvidia trading around $215 ahead of the print, the Wells Fargo target implies roughly 47% upside — and the thesis rests on a single, unusually legible number: $725 billion in committed hyperscaler capital expenditure that analysts say has to flow through Nvidia's data-center GPU stack.
What happened
Wells Fargo's semiconductor team raised its NVDA price target to $315, citing Q1 revenue guidance of $78 billion and arguing that the hyperscaler capex commitments from Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon create a multi-quarter demand floor that is difficult to argue away, per The Street's May 12 report. The Motley Fool noted on May 12 that historical pre-earnings patterns for Nvidia show the stock tends to pull back 5%-10% in the two weeks before a print, then surge if results beat — the current dip to $215 from March highs fits that pattern precisely. TIKR's May 12 analysis highlighted that the $725 billion hyperscaler capex figure is the single most important number heading into the quarter, because any reduction in spending guidance from Microsoft or Meta could immediately undercut the $315 target thesis.
Why it matters
Nvidia's May 20 report is not just a company event — it is a referendum on whether the AI infrastructure buildout is accelerating, holding steady or beginning to plateau. With $725 billion in hyperscaler capex riding on continued GPU demand, the print will reset price targets across the entire semiconductor supply chain, including AVGO, AMD and the SMH and SOXX ETFs.