A wave of Wall Street strategist upgrades hit the wires over the weekend after the S&P 500 closed Friday at a record 7,234. JPMorgan's Dubravko Lakos-Bujas raised his 2026 year-end target to 7,500 from 7,150, citing earnings momentum, falling oil prices, and the removal of the Iran-Hormuz tail risk. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson — long the Street's most prominent bear — finally capitulated and lifted his target to 7,200 from 6,500, in a Sunday note titled "Time to Concede."
Goldman Sachs' David Kostin moved to 7,400 from 7,150, while Bank of America's Savita Subramanian held steady at 7,300, citing limited upside if margins peak this quarter. UBS's Jonathan Golub maintained the Street's most bullish call at 7,800, while Citigroup's Scott Chronert moved up to 7,250 from 7,000. The new median Wall Street target now stands at approximately 7,350, implying just 1.6% upside from Friday's close — a sign that strategists are racing to catch up to the market rather than leading it.
Wilson's Capitulation Note Goes Viral
Wilson's "Time to Concede" note, which circulated on Wall Street trading desks within minutes of publication, acknowledged that "the combination of upside earnings revisions, falling oil, falling volatility, and the removal of the Hormuz tail risk has invalidated the bearish case for the next six months." Wilson noted he had been bearish on the S&P 500 essentially without interruption since early 2022 and that the cumulative cost of the call had been approximately 2,800 index points.
"The technicals have decisively turned, the breadth has decisively broadened, and the macro tail risks have been priced down," Wilson wrote. "Continuing to fight the tape from here would be intellectually honest but professionally unhelpful." The note prompted both praise for its candor and criticism for being a textbook capitulation signal at potentially elevated levels.
Earnings Estimates Climb
Forward S&P 500 EPS estimates for 2026 have climbed to $282 from $268 over the past four weeks, reflecting positive Q1 earnings revisions and improved Q2 guidance. The forward P/E multiple now stands at 25.6x — well above the 5-year average of 21.3x — but bulls argue that falling rates and improving economic visibility justify the premium.
Bears, including Bank of America's Subramanian and JPMorgan retail strategist Marko Kolanovic, who is now independent, point out that strategist median targets historically peak 4-6 weeks before market tops. "When everyone capitulates and the most-bearish strategist becomes constructive, that's historically a near-term contrarian signal," Kolanovic wrote in a separate weekend note.