The head of the International Energy Agency sounded one of the starkest energy security warnings heard in Europe since the 2022 Russian gas crisis Thursday, telling the Associated Press that European airlines face a genuine risk of running out of jet fuel within six weeks if the current Middle East conflict continues to choke crude oil supplies and redirect shipping through costlier and longer alternate routes.
IEA Director General Fatih Birol said Europe's commercial aviation stocks of jet fuel — known as Jet A-1 — have dropped to critically low levels because the Middle East crisis has simultaneously reduced crude throughput at several European refineries dependent on Middle Eastern feedstock grades and inflated shipping costs to the point where some fuel import cargoes are economically unviable. He called on European governments to activate emergency petroleum stock protocols and coordinate a continent-wide jet fuel rationing framework if conditions do not improve within weeks.
A Crisis With No Easy Substitute
Unlike natural gas, where Europe spent two years aggressively building LNG import infrastructure after the Russian supply shock, jet fuel has no short-term substitute and no strategic reserve mechanism comparable to the International Energy Program's 90-day emergency oil stock system for crude. Commercial aviation is entirely dependent on Jet A-1 — aircraft cannot be converted to alternative fuels on short notice — making a genuine shortage immediately impactful for airlines, airports, and the broader European tourism economy.
European aviation industry body Airlines for Europe (A4E) confirmed Thursday that several member airlines had begun informal discussions with government regulators about the allocation of available fuel supplies in a tightening market. A4E Secretary General Laurent Donceel said the industry had formally requested urgent intervention from the European Commission, including the activation of the EU's Energy Security of Supply Regulation provisions.
Market Impact Cascades Through Aviation and Energy
European airline stocks fell sharply on the IEA warning, with IAG — parent of British Airways and Iberia — declining 4.8%, Air France-KLM falling 5.2%, and Lufthansa Group dropping 3.9%. Jet fuel futures spiked 8% in London trading, their largest single-day move since the conflict began.