Goldman Sachs lifted its Q4 2026 Brent crude price forecast to $90 per barrel from $80 in a Sunday client note, citing prolonged disruptions to Strait of Hormuz throughput and a "materially lower" probability of a near-term Iran ceasefire. Brent crude closed Monday at $94.40, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled at $90.18, leaving both benchmarks roughly 28% above where they began the year.
The Iran war, which began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian leadership and nuclear infrastructure on February 28, has now stretched into its third month. Tehran-aligned forces have intermittently disrupted shipping lanes, while OPEC+ on April 11 agreed to accelerate output increases by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May. OECD member countries have separately released 84 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves to cushion the price spike.
Why the Forecast Moved
Goldman analysts cite three structural inputs: a 1.7 mb/d cumulative loss of Iranian crude exports versus pre-war baseline, a 600 kb/d reduction in Persian Gulf shipping insurance availability, and slower-than-expected SPR rebuilds. Even with OPEC+ adding supply, the bank's base-case 2026 average has been raised to $86, up from $74 in January. A persistent close above $94 would, in turn, lift U.S. headline CPI by an additional 0.4 percentage points by August, per the bank's pass-through model.
Energy-sector equities have been the principal beneficiary. ExxonMobil (XOM) is up 14.7% year-to-date, Chevron (CVX) is up 12.3%, ConocoPhillips (COP) up 18.9%, and oilfield-services giants Halliburton (HAL) and SLB (SLB) up 22% and 19% respectively. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE