Spot gold set a fresh all-time high of $3,420.50 per troy ounce in overnight Asian Thursday dealings, before consolidating to $3,408 — the metal's sixth record close of the past three weeks. Year-to-date gains now stand at 28.4%, comfortably outperforming the S&P 500's 6.1% total return and the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index's 1.4% gain.
The rally has been powered by three reinforcing macro drivers. First, the Iran war that began February 28 has reanchored a sustained geopolitical risk premium — Goldman Sachs estimates approximately $185 of the current spot price is attributable to war-risk pricing. Second, Wednesday's FOMC pause and dovish-skewed dot revisions reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, with real 10-year TIPS yields falling to 1.91%. Third, central bank net purchases continue to print record figures.
Central Bank Demand Hits New Records
World Gold Council preliminary Q1 2026 data — released this week — showed central banks added 312 metric tons of gold to reserves, the strongest first-quarter figure since records began in 2000. The People's Bank of China added 22 tons, the Reserve Bank of India 18 tons, and the Central Bank of Turkey 28 tons. The Hungarian and Polish central banks combined for 41 tons in dollar terms, motivated explicitly by reserve-diversification considerations.
On the ETF side, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) recorded $480 million of net inflows on Wednesday — the largest single-session inflow since November 2024. iShares Gold Trust (IAU) added $214 million. Aggregate AUM in physical gold