Homebuyers waiting for a rapid mortgage-rate reset may need more patience. Fannie Mae's May housing forecast projects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.3% in 2026 and 6.2% in 2027, a path that implies affordability relief but not a dramatic return to pre-2022 financing conditions.
The forecast also sees total home sales improving from 4.755 million in 2025 to 4.853 million in 2026 and 5.181 million in 2027. That is a recovery, but a gradual one.
Why it matters
A 6% mortgage world keeps the lock-in effect alive. Existing homeowners with lower mortgage coupons remain hesitant to list, while first-time buyers still face affordability limits from prices, insurance, taxes, and financing costs.
Market impact
The forecast supports a selective housing trade. Builders with scale and incentives can still move inventory, while brokers and mortgage originators need transaction volumes to normalize. Home-improvement demand may stay uneven if existing-home turnover remains below historical norms.
Key numbers
- Fannie Mae 30-year fixed mortgage forecast: 6.3% average in 2026.
- Fannie Mae 2027 mortgage-rate forecast: 6.2% average.
- Total home sales forecast: 4.853 million in 2026 and 5.181 million in 2027.
- Existing home sales forecast: 4.180 million in 2026 and 4.482 million in 2027.
- New single-family sales forecast: 673,000 in 2026 and 698,000 in 2027.
What to watch next
- Whether Treasury yields fall enough to pull mortgage rates below forecast.
- Inventory growth in existing homes.
- Builder incentives and cancellation rates.