WTI crude held at $94.40 per barrel and Brent at $98.10 in Sunday electronic trading after President Donald Trump abruptly cancelled a planned trip to Oman by special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, dashing hopes of a near-term breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Oil had rallied 8.4% over the prior fortnight on geopolitical premium and remains 23% above the early-March low of $76.50.
A senior White House official, briefing reporters off the record on Saturday, said the cancellation was triggered by intelligence reports that Iran resumed enrichment activity at the Fordow facility above the 60% U-235 threshold permitted under the now-defunct 2015 JCPOA framework. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei rejected the characterization, saying enrichment "remains within IAEA-monitored parameters."
Market Implications
OPEC+ delegates told Reuters Sunday that the producer alliance is now leaning toward maintaining its existing 2.2 million barrel-per-day voluntary production cut at the May 5 meeting, having previously considered a 411,000 bpd unwind. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman is expected to chair a videoconference with Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak on Tuesday to align messaging.
The Strait of Hormuz transit pace has not been disrupted: Lloyd's List Intelligence shows tanker traffic running at 19 vessels per day, only marginally below the 22 average of the past month. Iran's formal threat to close the strait has not been activated, but war-risk insurance premiums remain at $312,000 per voyage versus the pre-tension baseline of $84,000.
Energy Equities and Refiners
Exxon Mobil (XOM) closed Friday at $124.40, up 1.2% on the week, while Chevron (CVX) added 0.9% to $176.20. The S&P 500 Energy sector index has gained 11.4% over the past month, outperforming the broader market by 7.2 percentage points. Refiners faced mixed pressure: Marathon Petroleum (MPC) gained 2.1% on improved 3-2-1 crack spreads, but Valero Energy (