London cocoa futures (CCN26) plunged 14.2% to £4,840 per metric ton on Thursday — the largest single-session percentage decline since November 2008 — after Côte d'Ivoire's Conseil du Café-Cacao (CCC) disclosed a mid-crop production estimate of 380,000 metric tons, materially above the 290,000 ton consensus that had been priced into futures markets. New York cocoa (CCK6) fell 13.8% to $5,840, the lowest level in 11 months.
The CCC Friday-following-Thursday-meeting communiqué cited "exceptional rainfall in the southwestern producing regions through the March-April window, combined with effective swollen-shoot disease management since November." Total Ivorian production for the 2025/26 crop year (October-September) is now expected at 2.18 million tons, up from the prior 1.86 million tons estimate. Ghana — the second-largest producer — is also tracking ahead of expectations at an estimated 980,000 tons versus 870,000.
Confectioner Equity Reaction
Listed chocolate manufacturers rallied sharply on cost-of-goods relief: Hershey (HSY) added 4.8%, Mondelez International (MDLZ) gained 3.4%, Nestlé (NSRGY) rose 2.6%, Lindt & Sprüngli (LISN.SW) added 4.1%, Barry Callebaut (BARN.SW) — the world's largest cocoa processor — surged 8.2% on the read-through to processing margins. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) closed up 0.6%. By contrast, palm-oil and substitute-supplier cohorts came under pressure: Wilmar International (F34.SI) declined 1.4%, Sime Darby Plantation (5285.KL) fell 1.6%.
Cocoa futures had peaked at £6,420 per metric ton in March 2026 — a 17-year high — driven by three consecutive years of West African production deficits and a parabolic Ivorian export-restriction policy. The reversal in disclosed production estimates reflects the convergence of three factors: improved precipitation, the dilution of swollen-shoot virus impact through replanting cycles, and the gradual reactivation of capacity that had been idled.