Brent crude traded at $94.18 per barrel on Wednesday afternoon, slipping just 0.2% on the day, as the supply-demand setup left bulls and bears in a stand-off. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) settled at $90.04, also down marginally. The benchmarks have now traded inside a $90-$96 corridor for 14 consecutive sessions, the tightest weekly band since the start of the Iran conflict on February 28.
OPEC+ on Tuesday formally confirmed that May 1 output will rise by 411,000 barrels per day, accelerating the unwinding of voluntary production cuts. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kazakhstan account for roughly 75% of the additional supply. The cartel cited "fundamentals consistent with sustained inventory draws" and committed to monthly review.
EIA Inventory Snapshot
The Energy Information Administration's weekly report showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.4 million barrels last week, below the 2.8 million-barrel build expected. Cushing, Oklahoma stockpiles fell by 0.8 million barrels. Refinery utilization climbed to 91.2% from 90.4%, with gasoline inventories drawing 1.9 million barrels heading into summer driving season.
Goldman Sachs reiterated Tuesday's lifted Q4 Brent forecast of $90 per barrel, with the bank's commodities team noting the OPEC+ supply add will "marginally cap upside but does not change the structural setup driven by 1.7 mb/d of cumulative Iranian export losses." The bank assigns a 35% probability to a Brent print above $100 over the next three months.
Energy Equities Resilient
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) traded fractionally lower on Wednesday but remained 17.4% higher year-to-date, the second-best S&P 500 sector after technology. ExxonMobil (XOM) closed at $128.40, Chevron (CVX) at $172.20, and ConocoPhillips (COP) at $128.85. Halliburton (HAL