Brent crude futures fell roughly 2% to trade near $103 per barrel Friday morning after news broke that Iran's foreign minister is traveling to Pakistan to participate in diplomatic talks aimed at ending the Strait of Hormuz standoff. WTI crude tracked lower, shedding about $2 to trade around $99 per barrel.
The move provided some relief to energy traders who have watched Brent surge from $82.80 at the start of 2026 to a peak near $120 per barrel—a gain of more than 55% in less than four months. At the same time, analysts cautioned that the Iran foreign minister's travel signals early-stage diplomacy rather than an imminent resolution.
Citi's Three Scenarios for Oil
Analysts at Citi this week laid out three scenarios for global oil prices based on how the Hormuz crisis resolves. In the base case—a phased ceasefire with partial restoration of shipping within 60 days—Brent settles near $95 per barrel by year-end. In the bull case for oil (full blockade maintained through Q3), prices could test $130 per barrel.
"The path that matters most for global growth and inflation is the speed of resolution," Citi's commodity strategy team wrote. "Every additional month of disruption adds roughly 0.3 percentage points to global CPI and subtracts 0.2 percentage points from GDP growth."
Energy Equities React
Energy stocks pulled back modestly on the peace-talk headlines, with ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips all slipping 1–2% in early trading. Defense stocks also retreated, with Lockheed Martin and RTX giving back some of their crisis-driven gains.
For consumers, the prospect of lower oil prices offers tangible relief. U.S. gasoline prices have climbed to $3.88 per gallon from $2.93 just five weeks ago. JPMorgan estimated that every $10 decline in Brent crude equates to roughly $35 billion in annualized consumer savings in the United States alone.