The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases April Producer Price Index data at 8:30 AM ET on May 13, 2026, one day after CPI came in at 3.8% year over year and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.46%.
Markets are treating PPI as a confirmation test. March 2026 PPI ran at +0.5% month over month and +4.0% year over year, the highest annual reading since February 2023. Another hot number would give the higher-for-longer Fed narrative its second consecutive data point.
What happened
The back-to-back CPI and PPI sequence has become a critical two-day data window for rates, equities and the dollar. CPI on May 12 surprised to the upside at 3.8%, driven by shelter, services and residual energy pressure. PPI leads CPI by reflecting what producers are paying and charging before those costs reach consumers. A hot April PPI reading would suggest the inflation pipeline is still pressurized, giving the Fed less room to consider easing.
Why it matters
PPI matters because it measures price changes earlier in the supply chain. When PPI runs hot, the inflation pressure often flows through to consumer prices over the following months. In the current environment, where both energy costs and services inflation are elevated, a PPI beat can shift market expectations toward not just delayed cuts but an outright hike discussion at the June FOMC meeting.
Market impact
If April PPI matches or beats the March pace, expect Treasury yields to extend their push toward 4.5% and potentially test 4.6% on the 10-year. The dollar can strengthen, equity futures can face selling pressure, and bond ETFs like TLT face further losses. A softer-than-expected PPI would be a relief trade, especially for growth stocks and rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities.
Key numbers
- April PPI release: 8:30 AM ET, May 13, 2026, Bureau of Labor Statistics, per BLS schedule.
- March 2026 PPI: +0.5% month over month and +4.0% year over year, highest annual print since February 2023, per BLS.