Apple Inc. (AAPL) reports fiscal second-quarter results Thursday after the close, with Wall Street consensus calling for adjusted earnings per share of $1.62 on revenue of $96.4 billion — both metrics representing year-on-year growth of approximately 6%. The print arrives 24 hours after a mixed mega-cap technology tape: Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta all beat materially, but Amazon's AWS deceleration to 18% and a $115 billion capex guide weighed on aftermarket sentiment.
iPhone revenue is expected at $52.4 billion (up 4% year-on-year), with the consensus assuming approximately 51 million units shipped in the quarter. The key area of investor focus is the mix between the Pro and Pro Max — the high-end SKUs commanding 18-22% gross margin uplift versus the base iPhone 17. Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a Wednesday note that "Pro Max mix appears to have run at 41% of total iPhone units in the quarter, which would be a record and a significant ASP tailwind."
Services Margin and Apple Intelligence
Services revenue consensus stands at $26.8 billion, up 13.5% year-on-year, with operating margin guidance of 76.5%. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi flagged a potential upside surprise to margin "given accelerating App Store and Search advertising mix." Apple Intelligence — the on-device AI system — has now been rolled out in 26 languages and is enabled by default in 67% of iPhone 16 and iPhone 17 active devices, according to Sensor Tower estimates.
Greater China revenue is the other potential swing factor. The consensus estimate is $16.4 billion, down 1.5% year-on-year, but channel-checks from Counterpoint Research suggest Pro Max share of iPhone shipments in China rose to a record 38% in March, partially offsetting unit declines. Tim Cook is expected to face questions on the regulatory headwinds tied to ongoing U.S.-China trade frictions and the Iran war oil price impact on consumer-electronics demand in EMEA.
Capital Return and Stock Setup
Apple is widely expected to announce an authorisation increase to its share-buyback program — analysts model a $115 billion incremental authorisation, the third consecutive year above $100 billion. The dividend is forecast to rise 4% to $0.27 per share quarterly. Apple shares closed Wednesday at $214.80, up 0.4% on the regular session, and ended the day with implied move from at-the-money straddles at +/-3.4%, slightly below the eight-quarter average of +/-3.8%.